The Bog Roll King: What The Great Toilet Roll Shortage Taught Me About Spotting Shortages Early

I have always been the sort of person who likes to be prepared.

Maybe it started with the Cub Scouts motto, “Be Prepared”. Whatever the reason, I have never really understood the attraction of waiting until you run out of something before buying more of it.

Over the years, friends and family have occasionally teased me about it. I have tended to keep plenty of basics in the house, including tinned food, bottled water and other things that are useful to have around if normal supplies are ever disrupted.

And, long before anyone thought toilet rolls would become difficult to find, I had quite a few of those too.

Then The Toilet Roll Shortage Happened

In early 2020, as COVID-19 spread and people became increasingly worried about lockdowns and disruption, shoppers across the UK started buying unusually large quantities of everyday essentials.

Toilet roll became one of the most visible examples.

Supermarket shelves were emptied remarkably quickly. Reports of shortages then encouraged even more people to buy extra, which made the problem worse. Soon, everywhere had sold out, and some sellers were rationing any new stock.

At my house, however, there was no rush to find any.

I already had a sizeable stock.

As local shops and supermarkets started selling out, family members began getting toilet rolls from me instead. Friends found the whole thing highly amusing and I acquired a new title:

The Bog Roll King.

It was funny, but there was also a useful lesson in it.

By The Time Everybody Knows About A Shortage, You Are Already Late

The interesting thing about shortages is that they can appear to happen very suddenly.

One day, a product is completely ordinary. A few days later, everybody seems to want it at the same time.

Sometimes the underlying supply has genuinely fallen. Sometimes demand has risen sharply. Sometimes the fear of a shortage creates even more demand and turns a manageable situation into a real shortage.

Whatever the cause, the result is similar.

Once empty shelves are on the news and everybody is searching for the same product, getting hold of it becomes much harder.

The useful point is therefore not simply knowing that a shortage exists.

The useful point is spotting the signs before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

Being Prepared Is Not About Predicting The Future

I do not think anyone can reliably predict every shortage.

Nor does being prepared mean filling your house with enormous quantities of everything you might conceivably need.

It is really about noticing where there may be a growing risk and giving yourself enough warning to make a sensible decision.

That could mean keeping a little more of an essential item than usual.

For a business, it might mean checking availability, speaking to suppliers, increasing capacity or making sure an alternative source of supply is available.

In other situations, a shortage can create an opportunity for somebody who is able to supply what people suddenly need.

That Is One Of The Ideas Behind Demand Hunt

Demand Hunt has two closely related purposes.

The first is to identify emerging demand and potential business opportunities.

If people suddenly want more of a particular product or service than the market is currently supplying, there may be an opportunity for somebody to step in and meet that demand.

The second purpose is just as important.

Demand Hunt also looks for early warning signs of possible shortages and supply pressure.

That might help somebody prepare before an item becomes difficult to obtain, rather than discovering the problem only after everybody else has noticed it. It could be a household item, or it could be the next Christmas toy craze. Getting ahead of the last-minute panic buying could make the difference between delighted and disappointed faces on Christmas morning – an important thing for any parent.

Sometimes the same signal can serve both purposes.

A developing shortage may be something one person wants to prepare for and, at exactly the same time, something another business may be able to help solve.

From Toilet Rolls To Demand Signals

The toilet roll episode was obviously an extreme example, but the underlying pattern happens on a smaller scale all the time.

Demand changes.

Supply does not always change at the same speed.

Local shortages appear. Seasonal demand arrives. Particular products suddenly become fashionable. Skills become difficult to find. Services become heavily booked.

I saw the commercial side of this much more recently with solar eclipse glasses. I bought a box of 100 to meet what looked like a local demand and received more than 2,000 enquiries in just two days. They sold out, and I could probably have sold several times as many.

It was a very different situation from the toilet roll shortage, but the underlying lesson was remarkably similar: spotting changing demand early can put you in a very different position from noticing it once everybody else has.

That experience ultimately helped trigger the creation of Demand Hunt. You can read the full story in Introducing The FMI Weekly Demand Hunt.

Demand Hunt is an attempt to find these changes while they are still developing. We investigate unusual demand signals, potential product shortages, UK supply pressures, regional demand and emerging consumer trends and then rate what we find according to the strength of the evidence.

See What Demand Hunt Is Finding Now

Current demand signals, potential shortages and emerging opportunities across the UK.

Demand Hunt Live contains the strongest signals we are seeing right now, including products, services, local and regional demand and possible supply shortages.

See Demand Hunt Live

The Lesson From The Bog Roll King

I am still quite happy to be teased for keeping a few things in reserve.

If nothing ever goes wrong, having them does not really matter.

But every now and then, demand changes much faster than people expect.

And when that happens, being a little early can make a very big difference.

That is ultimately what Demand Hunt is trying to do: spot the change before the change becomes obvious.

Disclaimer: Demand Hunt highlights observed demand signals, potential shortages and emerging trends for information only. Findings can change and are not financial, investment or business advice. Always carry out your own research before acting.